University of Oxford · World Bank

University of Oxford · World Bank

James Cust

Development Economist

I study the economic consequences of natural resource discoveries — and why so many resource-rich countries grow slower than they should.

Research

Selected Research

Featured working papers and publications. View all →

Working Paper ResourcesGrowth 2022

The Dog that Didn't Bark: The Missed Opportunity of Africa's Resource Boom

James Cust, Alexis Rivera Ballesteros, Albert Zeufack

cross countrypanel data

The commodity super-cycle of the 2000s and 2010s delivered a massive windfall to resource-rich Africa. Yet the expected structural transformation did not materialise. We document that, despite record resource revenues, most African resource exporters failed to diversify their economies, invest in human capital, or build the institutional foundations for sustained growth. The boom was a missed opportunity — the dog that didn't bark.

View paper WB PRWP ↗
Published ResourcesInstitutions 2020

Institutions and the Location of Oil Exploration

James Cust, Torfinn Harding

spatial analysisborder discontinuity

We investigate the role of institutions in determining where oil exploration takes place. Using a global dataset of oil wells and a border-discontinuity design, we show that institutional quality strongly influences the location of exploration activity. Countries with weaker institutions explore less of their territory, missing potential discoveries. The results suggest that the resource curse may begin before extraction — with institutional quality determining whether resources are even found.

View paper DOI ↗
Working Paper ResourcesPresource Curse 2017

Evidence for a Presource Curse? Saving and Investment Responses to Giant Oil Discoveries

James Cust, David Mihalyi

diff in diffevent study

Giant oil and gas discoveries provide an opportunity to study the response of economic agents to large anticipated income windfalls. We use a new dataset of giant oil and gas discoveries to show that consumption rises, saving falls and investment in non-resource tradables declines in the years following a discovery — well before any revenues arrive. These pre-resource boom dynamics are consistent with rational forward-looking behaviour, but contribute to a deterioration in macroeconomic fundamentals that can seed a subsequent resource curse.

View paper WB PRWP ↗ Lab page ↗

Current Work

WB Minerals for Growth regional study

Active
James Cust

About

Jim Cust is a development economist at the World Bank and affiliated researcher at the University of Oxford. His research focuses on natural resources, critical minerals, the energy transition, and industrial policy in low- and middle-income countries.

Full bio & CV